1,000 Greatest Drivers: Martin Truex, Jr.
Sometimes luck doesn't always even out in the end.
I knew chances were not good that I would not finish this one before midnight because once Truex won the pole for yesterday’s finale at Phoenix, I wanted to wait and see if he actually won before I wrote this, although I correctly expected him to tank. After the race ended, I wanted to update all my statistical tables, update my stock car model, and also calculate stock car ratings for 2024 and I figured I’d do all that before I wrote the Truex post so I could provide a more accurate rating here. Truex did not do well in my model this year as his rating of -.022 this year was his first below-average rated season since 2010. Obviously, he was very unlucky and he repeatedly ran better than he finished, but you could also tell at times that it seemed he’d lost his desire to race particularly in the second half of the season, so his rating does make sense. I will likely make a post containing the full results of my stock car model pretty soon, but I’ll do a teaser here.
The top ten highest-rated drivers were these with their teammate comparisons (across all NASCAR divisions):
Kyle Larson: .260
Christopher Bell: .252
Erik Jones: .225
William Byron: .216
Carson Hocevar: .182
Ross Chastain: .165
Ryan Blaney: .150
Ryan Sieg: .138
Kyle Busch: .124
Austin Dillon: .114
Most of that makes sense to me. Obviously Erik Jones and Austin Dillon are overrated because Jimmie Johnson is washed up and Jones swept him and Dillon benefited from Busch slumping this year (although I do find it a little weird that Busch is that high if Dillon also is). Even though my model tends to vastly underrate current Penske drivers, Blaney still made it up to seventh so if you adjusted my model to remove the Penske bias and place the Penske drivers where they should be, Blaney would probably rise to third and Larson, Bell, Blaney in that order is exactly who I would pick as the top three Cup drivers this season. Anyway, I might save most of this for a longer post. Now on with the Truex capsule.
